Abstract

This paper aims to identify the variables that best predict the perceived risk of romantic breakup or separation during COVID-19. We hypothesize that greater psychological distress and lower perceived equity, partner support, and satisfaction increase the perceived risk of separation from a partner. Participants (n = 409 Dominicans; 79.71% female) answered six questionnaires corresponding to the variables of the study. The original model could correctly classify 88.8% of the cases, χ2 (4) = 231.926, p<0.001, but only marital satisfaction was a statistically significant predictor of the perceived risk of separation, W2= 46.897 p<0.001. The data was trained with 80% of the final sample and was cross validated with the rest of the sample to ascertain its value outside the current sample. The resulting model combines marital satisfaction, perceived risk of separation before COVID-19, quality time spent together before COVID-19, and marital status as the best predictors of perceived relationship dissolution, correctly classifying 95.3% of the cases, χ2 (5) = 314.873, p<0.001. We discussed the role of gender in the results and the value of each predictor for the model.

Keywords:
marriage; family disorganization; perceived risk of separation; psychological effects