The Hybrid Threat in the Gray Zone. Conceptualizations and Local and Regional Challenges to Security and Defense

The Hybrid Threat and Gray Zone. These are highly influential definitions that have generated debate in the political and defense spheres in the years since the second decade of the 2000s, posing significant challenges to national security. They involve the use of opposing asymmetric means, seeking to exploit the adversary's vulnerabilities without resorting to widespread armed conflict. This threshold involves armed actions (special actions in the seizure of territories or areas), psychological operations, the massive use of technology for disinformation, espionage, sabotage, among other capabilities. The regional context in the Americas is defined by organized crime categorized as transnational, capable of generating violence through its own capabilities (Mexican cartels) or through strategic alliances with subversive groups (Colombian cartels and guerrillas). The hybrid threat has a cross-cutting impact on social, political, and economic aspects of complex contexts such as Haiti, with its insular and regional impact, with at least 4,864 deaths between 2024 and 2025, according to UN data (DIARIO LAS AMERICAS (2025). In this article, we will address the complexity of regional hybrid conflicts, which impact the Haitian crisis and threaten to affect hemispheric stability at the regional level, with real potential in a globalized world. We introduce the topic based on descriptive aspects of current armed conflicts between states, generated by geopolitical competition (using conventional means, among others), as well as conflicts between states and non-state groups, sometimes conventional conflicts in an asymmetric framework with criminal or political interests, using virtual or local subversive means. We will then address approaches to the concept of hybrid threats in the gray zone, in the hemispheric or American context. We will look at the risks and, above all, the defense opportunities available to states. Finally, we will review the vandalism and violence perpetrated by armed gangs in Haiti and represent this case as a regional threat.

Keywords:
Hybrid threat and gray zone; risks; violence; intelligence; technological media; disinformation; security; defense